Estimation of the probability of bacterial population survival: Development of a probability model to describe the variability in time to inactivation of Salmonella enterica

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Despite the development of numerous predictive microbial inactivation models, a model focusing on the variability in time to inactivation for a bacterial population has not been developed. Additionally, an appropriate estimation of the risk of there being any remaining bacterial survivors in foods after the application of an inactivation treatment has not yet been established. Here, Gamma distribution, as a representative probability distribution, was used to estimate the variability in time to inactivation for a bacterial population. Salmonella enterica serotype Typhimurium was evaluated for survival in a low relative humidity environment. We prepared bacterial cells with an initial concentration that was adjusted to 2 × 10

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