Ensemble Dispersion Simulation of a Point-Source Radioactive Aerosol Using Perturbed Meteorological Fields over Eastern Japan
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- Tsuyoshi Thomas Sekiyama
- Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba 3050052, Japan
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- Mizuo Kajino
- Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba 3050052, Japan
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- Masaru Kunii
- Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo 1058431, Japan
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2021-05-22
- 資源種別
- journal article
- 権利情報
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- https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
- DOI
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- 10.3390/atmos12060662
- 公開者
- MDPI AG
説明
<jats:p>We conducted single-model initial-perturbed ensemble simulations to quantify uncertainty in aerosol dispersion modeling, focusing on a point-source radioactive aerosol emitted from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) in March 2011. The ensembles of the meteorological variables were prepared using a data assimilation system that consisted of a non-hydrostatic weather-forecast model with a 3-km horizontal resolution and a four-dimensional local ensemble transform Kalman filter (4D-LETKF) with 20 ensemble members. The emission of radioactive aerosol was not perturbed. The weather and aerosol simulations were validated with in-situ measurements at Hitachi and Tokai, respectively, approximately 100 km south of the FDNPP. The ensemble simulations provided probabilistic information and multiple case scenarios for the radioactive aerosol plumes. Some of the ensemble members successfully reproduced the arrival time and intensity of the radioactive aerosol plumes, even when the deterministic simulation failed to reproduce them. We found that a small ensemble spread of wind speed produced large uncertainties in aerosol concentrations.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Atmosphere
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Atmosphere 12 (6), 662-, 2021-05-22
MDPI AG
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キーワード
詳細情報 詳細情報について
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- CRID
- 1360857593672618752
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- ISSN
- 20734433
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- 資料種別
- journal article
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- データソース種別
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- Crossref
- KAKEN
- OpenAIRE
