On the lognormality of historical magnetic storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme‐event probabilities

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書誌事項

公開日
2015-08-19
権利情報
  • http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
DOI
  • 10.1002/2015gl064842
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to −<jats:italic>D</jats:italic><jats:italic>s</jats:italic><jats:italic>t</jats:italic> storm time maxima for years 1957–2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power‐law function. In general, the maximum likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least squares. From extrapolation of maximum likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −<jats:italic>D</jats:italic><jats:italic>s</jats:italic><jats:italic>t</jats:italic> ≥ 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100 year magnetic storm is identified as having a −<jats:italic>D</jats:italic><jats:italic>s</jats:italic><jats:italic>t</jats:italic> ≥ 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT.</jats:p>

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