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- Ethan R. Deyle
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
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- Michael Fogarty
- National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA 02543;
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- Chih-hao Hsieh
- Institute of Oceanography and Institute of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan;
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- Les Kaufman
- Department of Biology, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215;
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- Alec D. MacCall
- National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA 95060
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- Stephan B. Munch
- National Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA 95060
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- Charles T. Perretti
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
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- Hao Ye
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
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- George Sugihara
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093;
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2013-03-27
- DOI
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- 10.1073/pnas.1215506110
- 公開者
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
この論文をさがす
説明
<jats:p>For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (16), 6430-6435, 2013-03-27
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
