A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods. II. Benchmarks, Metrics, and Performance Results for Operational Solar Flare Forecasting Systems

DOI DOI HANDLE Web Site Web Site 研究データあり 被引用文献7件 参考文献45件

書誌事項

公開日
2019-08-01
資源種別
journal article
権利情報
  • https://iopscience.iop.org/page/copyright
  • https://iopscience.iop.org/info/page/text-and-data-mining
DOI
  • 10.3847/1538-4365/ab2e12
  • 10.48550/arxiv.1907.02905
公開者
American Astronomical Society

この論文をさがす

説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our solar system. Their impulsive and often drastic radiative increases, particularly at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to understand solar flares to the point of being able to forecast them. As data and algorithms improve dramatically, questions must be asked concerning how well the forecasting performs; crucially, we must ask how to rigorously measure performance in order to critically gauge any improvements. Building upon earlier-developed methodology of Paper I (Barnes et al. 2016), international representatives of regional warning centers and research facilities assembled in 2017 at the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Japan to, for the first time, directly compare the performance of operational solar flare forecasting methods. Multiple quantitative evaluation metrics are employed, with the focus and discussion on evaluation methodologies given the restrictions of operational forecasting. Numerous methods performed consistently above the “no-skill” level, although which method scored top marks is decisively a function of flare event definition and the metric used; there was no single winner. Following in this paper series, we ask why the performances differ by examining implementation details (Leka et al. 2019), and then we present a novel analysis method to evaluate temporal patterns of forecasting errors in Paper IV (Park et al. 2019). With these works, this team presents a well-defined and robust methodology for evaluating solar flare forecasting methods in both research and operational frameworks and today’s performance benchmarks against which improvements and new methods may be compared.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

被引用文献 (7)*注記

もっと見る

参考文献 (45)*注記

もっと見る

関連プロジェクト

もっと見る

キーワード

詳細情報 詳細情報について

問題の指摘

ページトップへ