Modeling observations of solar coronal mass ejections with heliospheric imagers verified with the Heliophysics System Observatory

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  • C. Möstl
    Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria
  • A. Isavnin
    Department of Physics University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
  • P. D. Boakes
    Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria
  • E. K. J. Kilpua
    Department of Physics University of Helsinki Helsinki Finland
  • J. A. Davies
    RAL Space Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell UK
  • R. A. Harrison
    RAL Space Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell UK
  • D. Barnes
    RAL Space Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell UK
  • V. Krupar
    Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS Prague Czech Republic
  • J. P. Eastwood
    Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London London UK
  • S. W. Good
    Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London London UK
  • R. J. Forsyth
    Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London London UK
  • V. Bothmer
    Institute for Astrophysics University of Göttingen Göttingen Germany
  • M. A. Reiss
    IGAM‐Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics University of Graz Graz Austria
  • T. Amerstorfer
    Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria
  • R. M. Winslow
    Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space University of New Hampshire Durham New Hampshire USA
  • B. J. Anderson
    Applied Physics Laboratory The Johns Hopkins University Laurel Maryland USA
  • L. C. Philpott
    Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences University of British Columbia Vancouver British Columbia Canada
  • L. Rodriguez
    Solar Terrestrial Center of Excellence‐SIDC Royal Observatory of Belgium Brussels Belgium
  • A. P. Rouillard
    Institut de Recherche en Astrophysique et Planétologie Université de Toulouse (UPS) Toulouse France
  • P. Gallagher
    School of Physics Trinity College Dublin Ireland
  • T. Nieves‐Chinchilla
    Heliophysics Science Division GSFC/NASA Greenbelt Maryland USA
  • T. L. Zhang
    Space Research Institute Austrian Academy of Sciences Graz Austria

書誌事項

公開日
2017-07
権利情報
  • http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
  • http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
DOI
  • 10.1002/2017sw001614
公開者
American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>We present an advance toward accurately predicting the arrivals of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the terrestrial planets, including Earth. For the first time, we are able to assess a CME prediction model using data over two thirds of a solar cycle of observations with the Heliophysics System Observatory. We validate modeling results of 1337 CMEs observed with the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) heliospheric imagers (HI) (science data) from 8 years of observations by five in situ observing spacecraft. We use the self‐similar expansion model for CME fronts assuming 60° longitudinal width, constant speed, and constant propagation direction. With these assumptions we find that 23%–35% of all CMEs that were predicted to hit a certain spacecraft lead to clear in situ signatures, so that for one correct prediction, two to three false alarms would have been issued. In addition, we find that the prediction accuracy does not degrade with the HI longitudinal separation from Earth. Predicted arrival times are on average within 2.6 ± 16.6 h difference of the in situ arrival time, similar to analytical and numerical modeling, and a true skill statistic of 0.21. We also discuss various factors that may improve the accuracy of space weather forecasting using wide‐angle heliospheric imager observations. These results form a first‐order approximated baseline of the prediction accuracy that is possible with HI and other methods used for data by an operational space weather mission at the Sun‐Earth L5 point.</jats:p>

収録刊行物

  • Space Weather

    Space Weather 15 (7), 955-970, 2017-07

    American Geophysical Union (AGU)

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