How natural and anthropogenic influences alter global and regional surface temperatures: 1889 to 2006
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- Judith L. Lean
- Space Science Division Naval Research Laboratory Washington D. C. USA
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- David H. Rind
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies NASA New York New York USA
書誌事項
- 公開日
- 2008-09
- 権利情報
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- http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor
- DOI
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- 10.1029/2008gl034864
- 公開者
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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説明
<jats:p>To distinguish between simultaneous natural and anthropogenic impacts on surface temperature, regionally as well as globally, we perform a robust multivariate analysis using the best available estimates of each together with the observed surface temperature record from 1889 to 2006. The results enable us to compare, for the first time from observations, the geographical distributions of responses to individual influences consistent with their global impacts. We find a response to solar forcing quite different from that reported in several papers published recently in this journal, and zonally averaged responses to both natural and anthropogenic forcings that differ distinctly from those indicated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose conclusions depended on model simulations. Anthropogenic warming estimated directly from the historical observations is more pronounced between 45°S and 50°N than at higher latitudes whereas the model‐simulated trends have minimum values in the tropics and increase steadily from 30 to 70°N.</jats:p>
収録刊行物
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- Geophysical Research Letters
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Geophysical Research Letters 35 (18), L18701-, 2008-09
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
