Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II: Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming

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  • Thomas Knutson
    NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey
  • Suzana J. Camargo
    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
  • Johnny C. L. Chan
    Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China
  • Kerry Emanuel
    Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
  • Chang-Hoi Ho
    School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
  • James Kossin
    NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information/Center for Weather and Climate, Madison, Wisconsin
  • Mrutyunjay Mohapatra
    India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
  • Masaki Satoh
    Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Chiba, Japan
  • Masato Sugi
    Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
  • Kevin Walsh
    School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  • Liguang Wu
    Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

書誌事項

公開日
2020-03
DOI
  • 10.1175/bams-d-18-0194.1
公開者
American Meteorological Society

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説明

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Model projections of tropical cyclone (TC) activity response to anthropogenic warming in climate models are assessed. Observations, theory, and models, with increasing robustness, indicate rising global TC risk for some metrics that are projected to impact multiple regions. A 2°C anthropogenic global warming is projected to impact TC activity as follows. 1) The most confident TC-related projection is that sea level rise accompanying the warming will lead to higher storm inundation levels, assuming all other factors are unchanged. 2) For TC precipitation rates, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase globally, with a median projected increase of 14%, or close to the rate of tropical water vapor increase with warming, at constant relative humidity. 3) For TC intensity, 10 of 11 authors had at least medium-to-high confidence that the global average will increase. The median projected increase in lifetime maximum surface wind speeds is about 5% (range: 1%–10%) in available higher-resolution studies. 4) For the global proportion (as opposed to frequency) of TCs that reach very intense (category 4–5) levels, there is at least medium-to-high confidence in an increase, with a median projected change of +13%. Author opinion was more mixed and confidence levels lower for the following projections: 5) a further poleward expansion of the latitude of maximum TC intensity in the western North Pacific; 6) a decrease of global TC frequency, as projected in most studies; 7) an increase in global very intense TC frequency (category 4–5), seen most prominently in higher-resolution models; and 8) a slowdown in TC translation speed.</jats:p>

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