熱帯低気圧による全球経済的損失の将来推計

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  • FUTURE PROJECTION OF ECONOMIC LOSS CAUSED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES AT GLOBAL SCALE
  • ネッタイ テイキアツ ニ ヨル ゼン キュウ ケイザイテキ ソンシツ ノ ショウライ スイケイ

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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are often associated with heavy rains and storm surges that bring severe damage to human society. Previous studies have indicated the possible increasing of TC intensity in the future. Thus, it is important to predict future TC losses. In this study, we developed regression models to estimate economic losses caused by TCs at global scale. The models used pressure drop, exposed population and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as inputs. Furthermore, economic losses in 2100 were projected by considering socioeconomic and/or climate change based on A1B scenario. In addition, future losses with socioeconomic and climate change under four different social scenarios were also estimated. In the results, global economic loss and ratio of economic loss to GDP would increase with socioeconomic and climate change. The increase of losses is mainly because of socioeconomic changes (particularly in the North Indian and the Southern Hemisphere regions) rather than climate change.

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