HINDCASTING THE STORM SURGE DURING THE 2017 HURRICANE IRMA ON MINOR ISLANDS

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  • Hurricane Irmaを対象とした諸島部における高潮水位の算定手法

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<p> A combination of quasi three-dimensional and three-dimensional models is required for reasonable and rapid real-time storm surge forecasting. It is also important to clarify the adaptability conditions of quasi three-dimensional and three-dimensional models. However, there are few studies which examined the adaptability conditions on minor islands because the possibility of storm surge disaster at these islands is quite low compared to the inner bay. In this study, we examined the applicability of quasi three-dimensional and three-dimensional models during the 2017 Hurricane Irma which caused storm surges around Caribbean Sea. We also examined the accuracy of computed three-dimensional velocity induced by its hurricane passage. As a result, it was clarified that three-dimensional model is necessary for modeling storm surge on minor islands. This is because the multi-layered cells contribute to the propagation of storm surge when water depth become small. The computed storm tide become high due to the wind set-up around the island area, but this storm tide caused by wind set-up effect can be estimated properly using three-dimensional model.</p>

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