FLIGHT DELAY PROPAGATION MODEL FOR COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS IN JAPANESE DOMESTIC AVIATION NETWORK

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  • 国内航空ネットワークにおける波及遅延の解析モデルと費用対効果分析への活用手法

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The purpose of this study is to quantify the propagated delay and to develop the econometric model for estimating the delay propagation multiplier for cost-benefit-analysis in Japanese domestic aviation network. Firstly, we collected the flight delay data from multiple source which are publicly opened and integrated them to capture the propagation of the flight delay. Secondly, we developed the calculation method for separating the original and propagated delay and analyzed the macroscopic characteristics of the propagated delay in Japan such as the effect of the buffer time. Finally, the new econometric model for estimating the delay propagation multiplier are developed which can easily capture the effect of the changes in buffer time for airport turn-around time and gate-to-gate block time, and as a case study we tested the developed model for the actually-planned delay mitigation measure in Haneda airport and evaluated the possible delay mitigation effect change by considering propagated delay.

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