PREDICTION OF PLUVIAL INUNDATION BASED ON NHRCM2KM RAINFALL DATA

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  • NHRCM2km降水量データを用いた内水氾濫の将来変化

Abstract

<p> In order to understand the changing trend of the pluvial inundation under the future climate compared to the present, this study focused on comparing inundation simulation results. At first, we picked up rainfall data of Osaka, Sapporo, and Fukuoka from NHRCM2km rainfall data. We calculated the 10-year probability rainfall of the present and future of each city. As a result, larger differences between present and future rainfall appeared in Sapporo and Fukuoka than those in Osaka. These results indicated that the rainfall scale in those cities would become much larger than that of the present. Secondly, we focused on Nakahama district in Osaka city and made four designed rainfalls of present and future from NHRCM2km. We applied them to the simulation model for pluvial inundation. As a result, comparing present and future, the scale of the peak of inundation and the area whose maximum inundated depth was small were estimated to become larger. Thirdly, we analyzed the amount of damage of pluvial inundation. As a result, predicted economic damage in the future became larger than that of the present in every case.</p>

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