GDP Nowcasting and Economic Assessment: Applying Real-time GDP Forecasting to Early Assessment of Ongoing Economic Activities

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  • GDPナウキャストと景気判断～景気判断実務におけるGDPナウキャストの活用に向けて～

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This study discusses the use of real-time GDP forecasting (nowcasting) in assessing the state of the economy by examining the relationship between the basic assessment of economic developments in the government’s Monthly Economic Report and the assessment of economic developments ob-tained in nowcasting. The results, while based on a limited number of observations, suggest that the government's basic assessment is likely to be revised in a similar direction as the GDP nowcasting estimates in situations where the nowcasting GDP estimates are successively revised in one particular direction by a certain degree. The finding implies that GDP nowcasting can provide useful information for the government to take into account in its economic assessment.

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