EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE TRANSITION PROBABILITY TO OPERATION METHOD DURING AN EXTRAORDINARY FLOOD FOR DISASTER PREVENTION AT THE KYUMAGAWA RIVER FLOOD CONTROL DAM AND CONSIDERATION OF PREVENTIVE MEASURES

DOI

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 球磨川の治水ダムにおける異常洪水時防災操作への移行確率の気候変動影響評価と操作防止策の検討

Description

<p> The impact of the heavy flooding caused by the historical heavy rain in July of 2020 on the Kuma River was evaluated in terms of the transition probability of “operation method during an extraordinary flood for disaster prevention” due to climate change, focusing on the existing storage-type dam, Ichifusa Dam, and the gate-controlled flood mitigation dam under construction, Kawabegawa Dam. The evaluation was conducted using a dam model incorporating an outflow model and dam operation rules, targeting the inflow volume to simulate the outflow discharge and water level in the dam. Additionally, the probability of excess floods at the downstream point of both dams, Hitoyoshi, was also evaluated. Measures to prevent abnormal floods and excess floods were verified, including the redevelopment of Ichifusa Dam, increasing the constant outflow discharge of Kawabegawa Dam during flood control operation, and creating reservoirs within the watershed areas. As a result, the quantitative evaluation of the changes in the transition probability of the operation for both dams and the probability of excess floods at Hitoyoshi due to climate change was possible. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the redevelopment of Ichifusa Dam has a significant effect and, in combination with reservoirs, there is a possibility of achieving the target safety level under all climate conditions.</p>

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Keywords

Details 詳細情報について

  • CRID
    1390021846533989120
  • DOI
    10.2208/jscejj.24-16064
  • ISSN
    24366021
  • Text Lang
    ja
  • Data Source
    • JaLC
  • Abstract License Flag
    Disallowed

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