A Foresight Methodology for Exploring Prior R&D Topics in Software Field and its Evaluation : Introduction of the method for calculating a degree of conflict

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  • ソフトウェア分野における研究開発重点分野策定の方法論とその評価 : 対立度の定量的計算手法の導入
  • ソフトウェア ブンヤ ニ オケル ケンキュウ カイハツ ジュウテン ブンヤ サクテイ ノ ホウホウロン ト ソノ ヒョウカ タイリツド ノ テイリョウテキ ケイサン シュホウ ノ ドウニュウ

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Abstract

In order to reinforce the research development power in the software-related sectors, it is necessary to clarify the methodology of formulating the R & D strategies. This paper focuses on the methodology of setting the themes for R & D. In order to promote R & D more effectively, we propose the NeXT model which consists of two stages: foresight of the priority areas based on the conflicts between near-future trends and verifying the priority areas. Since it is one of major problems of the NeXT model to evaluate whether there is a conflict or not between given trends, we show a method for calculating a degree of conflict using FURPS+model. We have evaluated this methodology by comparing with the results of the 7-th Technology Foresight which was conducted using the Delphi method. The NeXT model comes in compliance with the characteristics of the current society in which the link between technology and society is stronger than ever before, and is applicable to a wide range of fields.

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