Markov chain analysis to predict future changes in macrophytic vegetation in irrigation ponds in East-Harima, Hyogo Prefecture, western Japan

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  • ISHII Yoshiki
    Divison of Life Science, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kobe University:Tsuchiya Laboratory, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Kobe University
  • MIYABE Mitsuru
    Divison of Life Science, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kobe University
  • KADONO Yasuro
    Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Kobe University

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  • マルコフ連鎖を用いた兵庫県東播磨地方のため池植生の将来予測
  • マルコフ レンサ オ モチイタ ヒョウゴケン ヒガシハリマ チホウ ノ タメイケショクセイ ノ ショウライ ヨソク

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The species diversity of macrophytic flora in irrigation ponds located in the East-Harima area of Hyogo Prefecture, western Japan, has markedly declined over the past 20 years. In this study, we attempted to predict future changes in the macrophytic flora, using Markov chain analysis. Macrophytic vegetation in the irrigation ponds was first classified by cluster analysis based on vegetation data from a total of 831 irrigation ponds. We identified 17 vegetation types (Types 1-17) that were characterized by a few dominant species. We then used Markov chain analysis to calculate the future appearance (%) of all vegetation types from a matrix of transition probabilities of 165 irrigation ponds between 1980 and 2000. If changes similar to those of the past 20 years continue to occur, many vegetation types will disappear or be faced with extinction in the next 100 years. There is a strong probability that Type 1 (irrigation ponds without vegetation), Type 2 (dominated by Trapa), Type 3 (no single dominant species but Trapa occurs frequently), and Type 15 (dominated by Brasenia schreberi) will remain in the East-Harima area. This prediction reveals that many aquatic macrophytes in the East-Harima area may face extinction.

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