ESTIMATING DISTRIBUTION OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS AND STORM SURGE DEVIATIONS IN THE INLAND SEA AND INNER BAY AREAS

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  • 内海・内湾における波高および高潮偏差の年最大値の空間分布特性の推定
  • ナイカイ ・ ナイワン ニ オケル ナミ ダカ オヨビ タカシオ ヘンサ ノ ネン サイダイチ ノ クウカン ブンプ トクセイ ノ スイテイ

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Abstract

 Characteristics of spatial changes of annual maximum wave heights and annual maximum storm surge deviations in the inland sea and inner bay areas are discussed based on 45 years of hindcasts data on 1km regularly spaced grids at three locations, the Western Seto Inland Sea, Ise Bay and Tokyo Bay. Correlation coefficient of the annual maximum values between a focus point and the other compared points and Taylor diagram are used to illustrate the spatial changes around a point. Ratio of standard deviation σfocus pt./σcomp. pt. is used instead of σcalculation/σobservation in the diagram. Distribution of numbers at each point on all grids which have a high correlation (ρ>0.9) to the other points is estimated in order to facilitate understanding of spatial changes by locality of the annual maximum values. Main results are as follows: 1) Annual wave heights at the focus point show a narrow high correlation area with a long axis of the small sea area surrounding the point. 2) Annual storm surge deviations at the focus point show a larger and more rounded high correlation area than those of wave heights. 3) A contour map of σfocus pt./σcomp. pt. is useful to define real position of the plotted points in Taylor diagram. 4) Numbers at each point with high correlations of storm surge deviations are 3 to 4 times larger than those of wave heights, and high number areas appear in different locations than waves.

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