IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WATER ENVIRONMENT OF THE CONNECTED BRACKISH LAKES, SHINJI AND NAKAUMI

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  • YAJIMA Hiroshi
    島根大学 エスチュアリー研究センター Grrifith大学 Australian Rivers Institute
  • YOSHIOKA Yumi
    島根大学 生物資源科学部環境共生科学科
  • MARUYA Yasuyuki
    九州大学大学院 工学研究院環境社会部門
  • SAKUNO Yuji
    広島大学 大学院先進理工系科学研究科

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Other Title
  • 気候変動が連結系汽水湖宍道湖・中海の水環境に及ぼす影響

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<p> In Lakes Shinji and Nakaumi, which are connected brackish water lakes, there is a growing interest in future changes in the water environment. Therefore, we evaluated the water environment of both lakes for the present (1996–2005) and the future (2090–2099). For the future climate, three GCMs were used, and bias correction was applied. The runoff model of HSPF was used to predict the basin's inflow and water temperature. The water quality of the two lakes was predicted using a hydro-environmental model of AEM3D with these boundary conditions. As a result, precipitation is predicted to decrease by 10–20%, air temperature is predicted to increase by 1.3–4.0°C, and the inflow to the lakes is predicted to decrease by about 30% in the future. Moreover, the water temperatures in both lakes were predicted to increase by 0.7–2.5°C in the surface layers and by 0.5–2.5°C in the bottom layers. For salinity in the future, approximately 1.8 times greater increase in Lake Shinji and the more significant increase in the surface layer than in the bottom layer in Lake Nakaumi were predicted.</p>

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