COVID-19 Epidemic in Japan and Mathematical Model

DOI Web Site 5 References Open Access
  • Furuse Yuki
    Institute for Frontier Life and Medical Sciences, Kyoto University Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences

Bibliographic Information

Other Title
  • 新型コロナウイルス感染症の予測に関する数理モデル
  • 感染症数理モデルの実際と活用と課題について，数式を一切使わない論考

Description

<p>COVID-19 pandemic is a virtually first opportunity to use mathematical models in real-time to understand and control the spread of infectious disease. Mathematical models include 1) statistical models to describe a pattern of the number of cases and 2) dynamic models such as“ SIR model,” which describes the mechanisms of infection spread. These models help elucidate characteristics of COVID-19, evaluate past situations, understand its dynamics, and predict the future. Future predictions are performed for projection, scenario analysis, and forecast. We have faced challenges in using mathematical models for the outbreak response against the COIVD-19 epidemic in Japan; issues in communications among stakeholders are the most significant. Mathematical models will be used increasingly in the future in the field of infectious diseases and many other areas. To further make use of mathematical models, we all should understand not only mathematical models but also the situation and values of other people through good communication.</p>

Journal

  • Iryo To Shakai

    Iryo To Shakai 32 (1), 59-70, 2022-04-28

    The Health Care Science Institute

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