IMPACTS OF WRF CONFIGURATION IN TYPHOON FORECASTS AS AN EXTERNAL FORCE OF STORM SURGE SIMULATIONS

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  • 気象モデルWRFの計算条件設定の違いが台風・高潮予測にもたらす影響

Abstract

<p> To improve the accuracy of storm surge forecasting, it is desirable to improve the typhoon forecasting accuracy. The typhoon forecasting model WRF has a high degree of freedom in setting its calculation conditions. In this study, we conducted sensitivity analyses of the WRF’s calculation domain settings, initial and boundary conditions, and physics options, which have a large impact on typhoon forecasting due to the differences in their settings among model users. Here we show that (1) horizontal resolution has a greater impact on typhoon forecasting than location of calculation domain, (2) the choice of analysis data used for initial conditions of WRF has a greater impact on typhoon forecasting than lateral boundary conditions, and (3) the relationship between forecast start time and variability of storm surge forecasting due to differences in the setting of physics options of WRF. These results are useful for evaluating the uncertainty in typhoon and storm surge forecasts caused by differences in the WRF’s calculation conditions. In the future, introducing more sophisticated data assimilation (e.g., 4DVAR, EnKF) in typhoon forecasting seems necessary to improve the typhoon and storm surge forecasting accuracy.</p>

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