Stochastic Precipitation Model Using Large Ensemble Data

  • Shinohara Mizuki
    Graduate School of Science, Hokkaido University Tokio Marine dR Co., Ltd.
  • Inatsu Masaru
    Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University Center for Natural Hazards Research, Hokkaido University

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<p>A precipitation dataset is created to estimate a reproduction period of several thousand years for stochastic flood risk assessment in the non-life insurance sector. A stochastic precipitation model for natural hazard risk assessment developed in a previous study was applied to a large ensemble data. The model was used to obtain the precipitation ensembles for the recent and future climate by +2 K and +4 K increases in mean temperature, respectively. We successfully created 10,000 years of precipitation data, which makes it possible to obtain precipitation data over a 1,000-year return period.</p>

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