Impact of Global Warming on the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities

DOI IR Open Access

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Other Title
  • 宇宙活動の長期的持続可能性に影響する地球温暖化

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This paper investigates the impact of global warming on the long-term sustainability of outer space activities. Previous studies have indicated that the thermosphere is becoming increasingly cold due to global warming. As the temperature of the thermosphere decreases, the atmospheric density of the thermosphere also decreases. This paper assumes the rate of decrease in atmospheric density based on previous studies and then conducts future projections of space object population in LEO. The baseline scenario assumes “Reg Launches” and “90%PMD” with no decrease in atmospheric density. The term “Reg Launches” means repeating the insertion history of the past eight years. “PMD” is an acronym for Post Mission Disposal, meaning “Spacecraft or orbital stages that are terminating their operational phases in orbits that pass through the LEO region, or have the potential to interfere with the LEO region, should be maneuvered into an orbit with an expected residual orbital lifetime of 25 years or shorter.” The percentage before PMD represents the probability of success. Comparisons include but are not limited to population growth over 100 years, spatial density after 100 years as a function of altitude, and collision activities over 100 years as a function of altitude.

Physical characteristics: Original contains color illustrations

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