A STUDY ON VESSEL DRIFTING SIMULATION ACCURACY USING VARIOUS METEOROLOGICAL MODELS

DOI Web Site 5 References
  • TOKUNAGA Shogo
    日本工営株式会社 コンサルティング事業統括本部交通運輸事業本部港湾空港事業部海岸港湾部
  • ARIKAWA Taro
    中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科
  • KUROSAWA Kazuma
    いであ株式会社 沿岸・港湾事業部沿岸解析部
  • HIRAISHI Koushi
    中央大学大学院 理工学研究科 都市人間環境学専攻
  • WATANABE Masashi
    中央大学 理工学部都市環境学科

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Other Title
  • 気象予測モデルを用いた船舶の漂流予測計算精度に関する研究

Abstract

<p> In this study, a method for predicting the drift of vessels during typhoons is developed, and the accuracy of predicting the drift of vessels is investigated by calculating the drift using various weather prediction models. The prediction method is based on the domain meteorological model WRF, the Japan Meteorological Agency's GSM (Japan region), and the forecast data of MSM. The results of the prediction calculations showed that, on average, the error of the predicted drifting position from the measured value was about 1 to 4 km, but in the case of a vessel at anchor, the prediction accuracy of the drifting wake and the drifting point was higher in the case with a higher prediction accuracy of the wind field. However, in order to improve the accuracy of predicting the anchorage of a vessel during a typhoon, it is necessary to take into account various uncertainty factors, such as the anchor chain, waves, and the use of the main engine, in order to improve the calculation accuracy, such as the conditions for the start of drifting.</p>

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